ACC football demands respect

I was driving to Atlanta on Wednesday through Columbia. Columbia is diehard Cock country and is one of the few metros that is 100% SEC. A particular radio host (who I don't remember the name) spoke about why the SEC > ACC. He simply said the ACC cannot win the big game and I tend to agree with him. We won the season series 6-4 but a battle (or small string of skirmishes) does not make a war.

Let's look back at BIG ACC-SEC matchups over the years that would've really solidified us as a premier conference and equalled the playing field against the SECers. And let's keep it restricted to the BCS Era:

1999 - UT defeats FSU (National Title)
2000 - LSU defeats GT (PB)
2002 - UF defeats MD (OB)
2003 - ugag defeats FSU (SB)
2005 - AU defeats VT (OB)
2006 - ugag defeats GT
2006 - UK defeats CU (MCB)
2006 - ugag defeats VT (PB)
2007 - AU defeats CU (PB)
2008 - Bamma defeats CU

The national stage and we fall flat on our faces. Not to mention our 1-9 mark in the BCS games. Now, why was it that we got beat in our game of the year ever since FSU's 2000 season? Coaching.

We haven't had premier coaches (besides Bowden) since the 90's. Bowden finally began to rust after his '03 Sugar Bowl debacle. That left us with a conference full of has been or never was coaches.

Expansion added Beamer. The Amato, Bunting, Roof, and Gailey departures improved the conference's coaching talent astronomically. And look what we have to show for it in 2008: a 6-4 record against our primary rival of a conference. I expect continued success against the SEC as we've shown in the NFL draft that we've had comparable talent all these years. Now, we have comprable if not superior coaching. What do you all think about the conference debate?

How do you win the ACC?

Note: We have a new writer who has joined us. His name is Bird.

As my first post, I would like to drop some statistical analysis on how to win the ACC. This is based entirely on data provided by the post-expansion ACC (2004 forward, all BC data in 2004 is excluded).

Typically, in college football points scored per game goes hand in hand with a teams W/L column. However, the ACC offers us a bit of a different perspective on the matter. In the ACC, it is more important to have low defensive points per game than higher offensive points per game.

Every ACCC has featured the #1 scoring defense leading into the ACCC while the #1 scoring offense leading into the ACCC has been sitting at home watching the past two years (Clemson both times).

Below are some basic graphs showing Scoring Offense vs. Wins and Scoring Defense vs. Wins. You can use the linear regressions to predict your wins/losses for the remainder of the season (e.g. GT should win 6-7 games total for the season based on their offensive output but 8-9 based on their defense). I included this seasons wins/losses by normalizing them across a 13 game season for every team in the ACC that should make a bowl and 12 game season for those that wouldn't.







Currently, GT is the #1 defense but I do not see that lasting through the Miami/uga games while UNC is a close second and I see their defensive stats improving against the Terps, mighty Dookies, and hapless Wolfpack. Look for FSU to take the other division. Predicting the winner is a little more difficult because there are less points to interpret and because the statistically disadvantaged team has won twice (FSU in '05 and Wake in '06).

If I were betting man though, I'd put money on the team with the better turnover ratio and in this case it's UNC at +1.44 per game. However, the last time FSU won the ACC, they came into the ACCC with a negative turnover ratio. Look for UNC in the Orange Bowl unless UNC manages to Marcus-Vick-it-up in the ACCC.